Forecasting without the fiction
Every rep knows their forecast is half real, half theater. Here's how to tell the difference — and why the honest number is the one that scales.
Sales forecasts are stories told to a spreadsheet. The best reps tell the truth. The worst reps tell management what management wants to hear. Most reps are somewhere in between, and the middle is where forecasts go to die.
The two forecast problem
Every rep actually carries two forecasts in their head: the "this will close" number and the "this could close if everything goes right" number. The CRM usually asks for the optimistic one, because that's the one management uses to run the business.
This is how you end up with a 30% delta between what the board sees and what actually lands.
The fix is a vocabulary, not a system
Stop asking reps for one forecast. Ask for three numbers: committed, best case, and worst case. Require a one-sentence reason for each.
Committed: I would bet my commission on this. Everything is green.
Best case: One meeting away. Two risks.
Worst case: If I lost every deal that isn't signed, this is what I'd have.
Why this works
The moment you make reps distinguish the numbers, the fiction collapses. You can't say "committed" about a deal where the buyer hasn't spoken in three weeks. You can't call something "worst case" if the paperwork is signed.
Run the delta
Every Monday, compare last week's committed number to what actually closed. Over six weeks, every rep's pattern emerges. Some over-commit. Some under-commit. Both are fixable. The one that isn't fixable is pretending both numbers are the same.